Sydney & The Black Swan Grand Final Event
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I want to start this article by acknowledging the wonderful speech given by John Longmire at the Sydney Swan’s Club Championship dinner. That speech inspired me to write this piece. Sydney and the Black Swan Grand Final event. Hands up who knows what a black swan event is?
“A black swan event, a phrase commonly used in the world of finance, is an extremely negative event or occurrence that is impossibly difficult to predict. In other words, black swan events are events that are unexpected and unknowable. The term was popularized by former Wall Street trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who wrote about the concept in his 2001 book Fooled by Randomness.”
Obviously, this term is fitting for what happened to the Swans at the hands of Brisbane in the 2024 AFL Grand Final at the MCG. Especially, if you were viewing it from the vantage of a Sydney member or fan. The pinnacle game of the season quickly turned into an extremely negative event and one that was unpredicted by pundits.
Mourning A Black Swan Final Decider
I am reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s later book Antifragile. I confess that I did not make the semiotic connection until I sat there listening to coach John Longmire’s powerful speech at the club champ’s event. I thought that I was reading Taleb’s book because of my dysfunctional experiences at a new job. The gist of Antifragile is about how stressors in life make us stronger. You know, the old Nietzsche line about – “whatever doesn’t kill you making you stronger” or words to that effect. We live in a modern world where everything is about labour saving devices and technological conveniences.
No Blood Affair In Black Swan Capitulation
However, perhaps, I was also attempting to gain solace from the bitter pill that was the 2024 grand final experience. That vile serve of humble pie, which was uncannily reminiscent of the 2022 grand final against Geelong. Immediately, some smart cookie might interject here and say, how can it be a black swan event if it happened two years earlier? In my defence, I would counter by saying that both outcomes were wildly out of character and keeping with Sydney’s track record in season and over previous seasons. Indeed, the club were known as the Bloods due to their tenacious ‘never say die’ approach to the game.
Shameful Sydney Stuff On The Footy Field
I tip my hat to John Longmire again for having the courage to stand up and address the faithful following the capitulation in the decider. Personally, I found it hard to face friends and family in the aftermath of that crushing defeat. Losing any GF is tough but it is the manner of these losses that strikes deepest and longest. How do you achieve so much to finish with 19 wins and the minor premiership and save that iniquity for last? Gobsmacked and stunned. Bereft of answers and feeling without hope. These were just some of the feelings I went through. You find yourself disassociating and detaching from your love of the team, not in spite but out of self-preservation. It is only a game, I hear someone say, well, it all depends how invested you are in team and, yes, the game. Sydney and the Black Swan Grand Final event.
Why Did The Black Swan Happen?
Longmire shared with listeners to his speech some of his musings following the post-game review process and end of year exit meetings with the players. Why? WTF? What happened? No clear answers came forth. It was an honest reflection, however, and touched on the hollow feeling at the pit of the stomach, which many fans share I am sure. The coach and coaching staff cannot sit around bemoaning what eventuated at the final hurdle, as they and the club must learn from it and move on. It was a black swan day in my book and there are lessons to be learned from it, all the same.
Coach Longmire & Unforeseen Calamities
The premise of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Antifragile, in my take on it, is that in so many areas of human life we are actively removing stress and that this is setting us up for black swan events. Setting us up for extremely negative and unpredictable occurrences. Everything is about convenience and staying in our comfort zones in the 2020s’. Therefore when the shit hits the fan we will likely be totally unprepared for it. Think GFC and the world economy suddenly tanking to the tune of some $29 trillion. Who predicted that? Very few and no one was listening anyway. In AFL terms, who really expected the Sydney Swans to be utterly blown away and unable to make any kind of come back or showing in the GF?
Fragile Swans On September’s Biggest Stage
Coach Longmire had no answers to this blackest day at the MCG by his players or none that he was willing to share in his speech. In my view, from afar and in light of reading Antifragile I wonder if some of the stuff that has filtered down to supporters is possibly to blame. The Sydney Swans AFL club has long been considered a paragon of virtue in comparison to industry norms. Paul Roos, the previous head coach had the ‘no dickheads’ policy, which served the club well for many years. Personally, I have been proud to have been a member and supporter over 30 years. Personal development and growth are regularly mentioned in despatches by players, coaches and administrators. ‘Love’ has been on the lips of some players in this most modern rendition of the team. Team building has gone to new levels and players play for each other. We have seen displays of brilliance through much of the 2024 season, as talented players distributed the ball at lightning speeds in search of goals on the score board. 19 wins speaks of success in these endeavours over other teams in the home and away season. However, and there must be a caveat here because of the manner in which they lost the grand final to the Lions. What happened in the GF to be so badly beaten???
I am older by far than the players, obviously, and most of the coaches too. It can be easy to fall back on the generational divide and sing the praises of yesteryear and its zeitgeist. Back in my day and all that old guff. The game of AFL has changed a hell of a lot since I played as a teenager. I respect that and I honour the current crop of players and their seemingly holistic attitudes to the game and their team mates. Errol Gulden is an inspiration to behold and listen to, on the few occasions I have had that privilege. Isaac Heeney is a great footballer and seems a lovely young guy as well. Chad Warner appears to take genuine joy from playing the game at the highest level and is exciting to watch. So many of the Swans are wonderful footballers and come across as good human beings too – it is a credit to them and the club. Getting to the point, however, the black swan point, does the team lack the stressors to compete in the ‘no tomorrow’ final at the MCG?
Has the mentality of the club removed too many of the hardships to the detriment of the team when it matters most? Sydney and the Black Swan Grand Final event
There is no definitive answer to this and it is only a speculative question along antifragile lines. Yes, the players perform incredibly well athletically and are a credit to the conditioning experts. The black hole, however, the black swan moments are what happened in the 24 and 22 GFs. Thrashed comprehensively and uncompetitive for almost the entire match. WTF? Is this psychological or something else? How can a winning formula disappear and be outclassed so devastatingly? How can you go from chocolates to boiled lollies in one week?
How can so many players lose so many contests against their opponents? A black swan dive into the depths of failure on the biggest stage there is!
Talent will not be enough when the opposition out pressure you at every moment. Talent will not prevail when the opposing team run harder, faster and harry you all over the ground. You have to have something to draw upon when things are not going your way. You have to have been exposed to this kind of stress and have learned to come back from it. You have to have the grunt to overcome such pressure and beat them at their own game. AFL, despite the leavening anti-concussion measures, is still a brutal game. I am not sure if the modern day Swans have the nasty in them to prevail at the coal face of the ultimate contest on grand final day. The old version of the Swans were Bloods and they could lock teams down. The 6-6-6 rule has changed the stakes but you cannot be so easily scored against. Losing your way so comprehensively and being outplayed is unSwans like.
“Antifragility is a property of systems in which they increase in capability to thrive as a result of stressors, shocks, volatility, noise, mistakes, faults, attacks, or failures. “
I recommend that John Longmire pick up a copy of Antifragile and have a flick through it. The book is not perfect by any means and may not be the gospel when it comes to the Swans in the GF but worth a look, in my opinion. The Swans come across like children via the lens of the club’s social media. It is great to see them enjoying themselves and probably much of the target audience are kids. I suspect that there are tougher conversations happening behind closed doors. The optics suggest otherwise, however. One black swan event is a nightmare but two in a couple of years tells a tragedy in which the club is complicit. Something needs to be done to address it.
The joy of playing needs to be tempered by the grit born of pain in failure. Let’s see some of that in 2025.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BaU7Sxk6Yk4
Robert Sudha Hamilton is the author of America Matters: Pre-apocalyptic Posts & Essays in the Shadow of Trump.
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